An advanced project in an undersupplied market
My preferred commodity exposure is sulphate of potash (SOP) – not to be confused with the more common muriate of potash (MOP), which in is an oversupplied market. SOP makes up around 10% of the overall potash market, or ~6mtpa, (a ~US$3.6b pa market). SOP is a speciality fertiliser commodity with a strong market outlook and very limited options for supply growth.
It’s a market that’s undersupplied, and it’s dominated by a few majors who can’t increase production further. The price has gone from strength to strength the last decade. We don’t actually need the price to go higher to incentivise new supply.
The industry is essentially fully utilised, and there is a genuine need for new large-scale projects. The majors are now busily searching the globe for new development opportunities; it reminds me of where lithium was a year ago, however, unlike lithium, there are very few genuine emerging projects…